The current Premier League season is turning into an exhilarating affair after 13 matches, roughly a third of the way through. At this stage, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool are sitting at the top three spots, all separated by just two points. As of the latest update before the Arsenal vs. Wolves match, Arsenal holds 30 points, City has 29, and Liverpool sits at 28.
This season has been a thrilling one not just for this reason but also due to several other factors. In the past seven seasons, Manchester City has won the trophy six times, and Liverpool once. Last season, Arsenal was leading the table for more than six days. However, this competition has been unidirectional or bidirectional; a three-horse race hasn’t been witnessed for quite a while until now.
The Premier League history has seen a scenario where the point difference between the top three teams was only one point nine times. Among these, only five times did the difference between the first and third-placed teams remain at two points. The last occurrence was in the 2015-16 season when Leicester City clinched the title against all predictions.
The current season in the Premier League might witness some twists and turns, but the odds slightly favor Manchester City to clinch the championship. They hold a 77.7% chance according to Opta’s supercomputer predictions, followed by Liverpool with 10.2% and Arsenal with 9.3%. However, the race for the title might see fewer goal fests, given the defensive strengths of these teams being crucial in deciding the eventual champion.
In the history of Premier League championships, defensive strengths have played a pivotal role. While Manchester United won the title in the 1992-93 season with the best defense, subsequent champions didn’t always have the lowest goals conceded. The trend shifted again during City’s dominance, with five of six champions being the best defensively. However, in the 2018-19 season, the team with the best defense didn’t win the title.
Apart from the top three teams with a narrow two-point margin, the competition remains intense between the teams positioned from five to eight—Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United, Newcastle, and Brighton—all separated by just six points, all vying for a Champions League spot.
With nearly two-thirds of the league season still ahead, the fluctuations might continue. Whether Arsenal can maintain their lead with small-margin wins, Liverpool can capitalize on their goal-scoring, City can cope with pressure matches, or Aston Villa can sustain their good run remains to be seen.
However, in recent years, the most thrilling and competitive aspects of the Premier League have been highlighted, with the current standings, the natural traits of title-winning teams, and the diversity of the league’s normative trends all contributing to the excitement.
