In the Maldives, the upcoming Saturday (September 30) will witness a direct run-off election between President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu. However, this election is being closely watched by India and China.
The Maldives is renowned for its unparalleled beauty, coral reefs, and marine biodiversity in the heart of the Indian Ocean. In a place like this, where geopolitics can cast a shadow over environmental splendor, it is unlikely to go unnoticed by either India or China.
Both India and China are making strong efforts to increase their presence in the Maldives, a strategically positioned nation in the midst of shipping routes connecting the East and West. Their presence in this region, where shipping routes pass through, is vital for their economic interests.
Both presidential candidates in the Maldives are currently visiting the islands, campaigning for the election, and representing the interests of different Asian powers. One is aligned with China, while the other with India.
Since coming to power unexpectedly through the 2018 election, President Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has strengthened ties with India. Besides strong cultural and economic relations, his country’s strategic and economic cooperation with India has become robust.
On the other hand, Mohamed Muizzu, the leader of the Progressive Alliance coalition, is keen on improving relations with China.
Historically, the Maldives has long been under India’s influence. Its presence in the Maldives allows Delhi to keep a watchful eye or maintain monitoring in a crucial part of the Indian Ocean.
While President Solih had a 39% vote in the first round of the election, making the run-off election appear competitive, his “India First” policy has raised concerns, particularly in relation to Delhi’s deepening ties with the Maldives.
Critics argue that for a country to have good relations with one nation, it shouldn’t mean poor relations with another, characterizing this approach as a “zero-sum game.”
For this criticism to gain traction in the election, it would likely require some deviation from Solih’s performance, although he has not accepted this argument at all.
In an email interview with the BBC, President Solih stated that having good relations with one country does not mean bad relations with another. He does not view this as a “zero-sum game.”
However, Solih’s “India First” policy has left many in the Maldives feeling that their country’s sovereignty is eroding due to over-dependence on India, which is their primary concern.
In 2010 and 2013, India gifted the Maldives two helicopters. In 2020, they also provided a small aircraft. It was stated that these would be used for search and rescue operations and disaster relief in the Maldives.
But in 2021, the Maldivian National Defense Force reported that 75 Indian military personnel were stationed in the country for maintaining and operating the aircraft, sparking controversy.
This issue has become a major issue in the country, even though Solih is ahead in the run-off election. However, his opponent from the opposition camp, Muizzu, is framing it as a “proxy” contest against India.
Given the tense relationship between Solih and Delhi, the opposition camp is also leaning toward China for support. China is involved in several major projects in the Maldives, including a 2.1-kilometer-long bridge connecting the capital, Malé, to another island with an international airport.
This bridge, built at a cost of $200 million, was inaugurated in 2018 when Yameen was still the President. The “India Out” campaign is active in the election campaign, but many young Maldivians are concerned about issues such as rising living costs, unemployment, and climate change.
These internal issues might overshadow the external ones, especially after the presidential election. Whichever party wins will have a challenging task ahead of them, as smaller parties that could have supported either side have not yet made their decisions.
The opposition alliance’s vice president, Mohamed Hussein Sharif, argues that due to the current government’s heavy reliance on India, our country’s sovereignty is being compromised, and this is our main concern.
He further explains that almost every project in the Maldives is currently being constructed using Indian funding and Indian institutions are handling these projects.
While the “India Out” campaign is ongoing in election propaganda, many young Maldivians are more concerned about issues like rising expenses, unemployment, and climate change. These internal concerns may take precedence over external issues, especially after the presidential election.
Source: BBC
